"...this is the most articulate and accurate piece written about the club for years!" - Tales from the Front, http://www.otib.co.uk/

Friday, 9 February 2018

Bristol City v Sunderland: Betting tips and statistics


Ross Casey, formerly top football tipster of EasyOdds and a lifelong City fan, returns to take a look at the Bristol City betting markets to help you beat the bookies.

Ross’ latest article on The Exiled Robin comes ahead of this weekend’s home fixture against the struggling Sunderland at Ashton Gate. Over to Ross…

Bristol City return from their warm weather training in Dubai looking to improve upon a disappointing performance in their 1-0 loss to Bolton last Friday. The Robins were uncharacteristically wasteful in possession and Lee Johnson was correct in suggesting that we deserved nothing from the game in his post-match conference. The current run of one win in nine is certainly a worry, but it is hoped the break in Dubai will do the squad plenty of good ahead of our fixture against The Black Cats on Saturday.

Last week we pointed out under 2.5 goals and no in the both teams to score market as valid bets, which would have both come in. I hope some of you got on those! Now to look at the latest Bristol City v Sunderland betting odds.

MATCH ODDS
Despite just one win in nine, Bristol City are a best price of 7/10 in this fixture, making them firm favourites and odds on to win. Some bookmakers go even shorter at 8/13 - so make sure you peruse an odds comparison service - this will ensure you get the best Championship odds if you are backing us.

The Robins are now sixth in the league, with Fulham taking our fifth place last weekend with their fifth Championship win in a row. Unfortunately, we lost three points on many sides, with only us and Sheffield United dropping points in the top eight in the league table.

The draw is available at 14/5 with City picking up just three from a possible 20 on their home turf this season, the last coming all the way back in October when we played out a dire 0-0 at Ashton Gate against Burton. Bristol City have drawn two of their last four home fixtures against Sunderland, however!

Sunderland have been made outsiders with best Championship odds of 5/1. When you look at some of the quality they possess within their squad that looks a very big price. They have lost four of their last five away from home though so that probably comes into the equation for the bookmakers.

KEY STATS
Sunderland have scored just two goals in their last five away matches and netted just once in their last five visits to Ashton Gate. If you fancy a clean sheet for City, there is a best price of 6/5 available.

Bristol City are beating Sunderland in the historical head to head data with The Robins winning 17 to The Black Cats’ 15. If you fancy another home win for City here, you can get best odds of 7/10.

Bristol City have only been winning at half-time in six of our 20 matches at home this season. If you think City will win but will have to wait until the second half to come good, you can back draw/Bristol City in the half-time/full-time market at 41/13.

The trio of Famara Diedhiou, Joe Bryan and Jamie Paterson are joint top scorers for Bristol City at Ashton Gate this season with five goals and they are priced up as 16/13, 22/5 and 9/4 respectively in the anytime goalscorer market.

Nine of the last 12 games at Ashton Gate this season have gone over 2.5 goals this season and the bookies have made it a best price of evens that three or more goals are scored in the fixture this weekend in the over/under market.


RECOMMENDED BEST BET
I am feeling fairly confident that we can come away with a win in this game, but I do fear that Chris Coleman has done his research and seen the likes of Millwall, Burton and Norwich come away from Ashton Gate with points in the bag thanks to a deep defensive line and allowing us to come onto them rather than looking sharp and incisive on the counter attack. For that reason, I will stay away from the odds on 7/10 price that we win outright as it seems too short a price for me.

I prefer the even money price on over 2.5 goals to be scored. That bet came in during our away 2-1 win over Sunderland earlier in the season and I can see us looking less resolute without Nathan Baker in defence as well as hoping we continue our impressive home scoring form - we are currently on 37 goals in just 20 games in all competitions at Ashton Gate!

Follow Ross on Twitter at @RossCasey24

Ross Casey has six years worth of experience in the football betting industry where he worked his way up from a data management input role all the way to being the editor thanks to his betting knowledge and his editorial skills.

Currently seeking new work after redundancy, we are happy to have the Bristol City fan who has supported the club from birth and had a season ticket for 15 years before moving to London, writing for us weekly. He now attends as many City games as possible and counts Tommy Doherty and Jon Stead among his City heroes.



The Exiled Robin

Thursday, 1 February 2018

Bolton Wanderers v Bristol City: Betting tips


Ross Casey, formerly top football tipster of EasyOdds and a lifelong City fan, returns to take a look at the Bristol City betting markets to help you beat the bookies.

Ross’ latest article on The Exiled Robin comes ahead of Friday night’s trip to Bolton for Sky’s Friday Night Football headliner. Over to Ross…

Bristol City head to the Macron Stadium on Friday night in a Championship fixture broadcast live on Sky Sports. With the Robins ending a seven-match winless streak last weekend, it is imperative that we push on and put pressure on our promotion rivals by bringing home the points!

MATCH ODDS
Despite our mid-season wobble, Bristol City are a best price of 11/10 to win this fixture, making them firm favourites. Some bookmakers go even shorter at 19/20 odds on - so make sure you peruse an odds comparison service - this will ensure you get the best Championship odds if you are backing us.

The Robins are now fifth in the league, just three points off second placed Derby County. However, the play-off hunting pack now goes arguably as deep as 11th with Brentford just eight points behind us with 17 games to go.

The draw is available at 12/5 with City picking up six on their travels already this season, and drawing 24% of their 37 matches this season. Of course, Bristol City drew 0-0 the last time they played this fixture in 2015.

Bolton have been made outsiders with best Championship odds of 59/20. Phil Parkinson’s side have won less home games than we have won away and the fact we have lost just two on the road in The Championship is probably the reason that bookmakers have made them almost 3/1 to win here.

KEY STATS
Only one of the last eight Bolton games have seen three or omr goals scored. If you fancy another under 2.5 goals to be scored on Friday night, you can get a best price of 8/11.

With Gary Madine sold to Cardiff on deadline day (what a classic Warnock signing that is) Bolton have lost their top Championship scorer of 10 goals. The rest of the squad scored a combined 14 without him. If you fancy a clean sheet for City, there is a best price 6/4 available.

In the last 11 meetings between these two sides, both teams have scored just four times! Backing no in the both teams to score Bolton v Bristol City betting market will get you best odds of 20/21 on Friday night.

If Bristol City are to win this one it will be their first ever victory at the Macron Stadium. They have played three times at their so far picking up a draw and two defeats. We even managed to lose back in 2012 despite going 2-0 up within 21 minutes! If you believe in curses, perhaps you will be backing Bolton double chance (to either win or draw) which has been priced up with Championship odds of 4/5.

Bobby Reid has scored 14 goals for Bristol City this season and interestingly, 10 of those have come away from home. The bookies have made him the 13/8 favourite to score in the anytime goalscorer betting market.

RECOMMENDED BEST BET
I am feeling fairly confident that we can come away with at least a point in this one. Bolton have lost the focal point of their attack, although it will be interesting to see how Gary Madine’s replacement, Tyler Walker, fares here.

Bolton play a deep defensive line as they are worried about their lack of pace in defence and for me that is a bit of a worry as our counter attack could be neutralised by such a tactic. However, only four Championship sides have scored more on the road than us and for me we can outscore Bolton and pick up our first ever three points at the Macron. Back a City win - but make sure you get the 11/10 and don’t settle for less!

Follow Ross on Twitter at @RossCasey24

Ross Casey has six years worth of experience in the football betting industry where he worked his way up from a data management input role all the way to being the editor thanks to his betting knowledge and his editorial skills.

Currently seeking new work after redundancy, we are happy to have the Bristol City fan who has supported the club from birth and had a season ticket for 15 years before moving to London, writing for us weekly. He now attends as many City games as possible and counts Tommy Doherty and Jon Stead among his City heroes.



The Exiled Robin




Tuesday, 23 January 2018

Bristol City v Manchester City betting Tips #MCFC #BristolCity

Bristol City v Manchester City betting tips

Ross’ debut on The Exiled Robin started with an agonising (but very fortunate for us) loss as his Derby to win to nil recommended best bet didn’t come in thanks to the wrong decision not to give Derby a late penalty for a foul by Aden Flint on Cameron Jerome. He did however, point out that Derby have the best home defence in the league and ushered you in the direction of a home clean sheet at 17/10. Over to Ross for the betting preview of our Carabao Cup semi-final second leg on Tuesday night…

Bristol City head into this tie on the back of a gutting late 2-1 defeat at The Etihad in the first leg. The Robins were on a five-match losing streak heading into the match with Derby on Friday, so Lee Johnson was delighted to end that unwanted streak ahead of this massive fixture. Annoying for me is the ruling that away goals count AFTER extra-time, so if the game does go to 120 minutes, Man City will have that long to secure an away goal which will count double, whilst Bristol City only had 90. 

MATCH ODDS

Premier League leaders Man City are a best price of 1/4 to win this fixture, making them huge favourites. They disposed of Newcastle 3-1 last time out with familiar ease and Argentinian superstar Sergio Aguero netted a hat-trick. 

The Cityzens are still in with a shout of securing a historic quadruple this season under Pep Guardiola and with a tie against Cardiff the following weekend rather than Liverpool as it was in the first leg, I expect him to name a stronger side than he did then.

The draw is available at 11/2 with Man City drawing just four of their 35 matches this season. Of course, Bristol City were seconds away from securing such a result at The Etihad before Aguero headed home.

The Robins have been made even bigger outsiders at 14/1. A far bigger price than the 9/2 winning bet I got on The Robins to beat their Manchester rivals in the quarter-final! 

KEY STATS

Both previous League Cup ties between these two sides finishing 2-1 to Man City. That correct score is available at 9/1 for those interested!

Man City striker Sergio Aguero has now scored seven goals in his last five games with the Liverpool away loss the only match he hasn’t netted in during that sequence. With Gabriel Jesus out injured he is the only real out an out striker at their disposal, although Raheem Sterling filled that role in the first leg. He is a best price 11/4 to score first or you can get odds on 8/13 that he scores anytime.

Bristol City have only scored two goals in their last six matches and whilst we saw the return of Famara Diedhiou on Friday night, it will be a while until we see our record signing at his best as he returns to full fitness. With Man City keeping eight clean sheets in 17 away games so far, many may fancy the 21/20 available on Man City to win to nil.

However, a caveat to that would be that Bristol City have scored in every one of their Carabao Cup games this season and in fact historically scored in 21 of their 24 fixtures against Man City, including never once failing to net at home against them! Both teams to score is 11/1.

For the hopeless romantics, there is faith to be had in the fact that Man City have actually now won just three of their last seven AWAY matches in 90 minutes. Bristol City have been made 7/2 to secure a double chance victory – to either win or draw in 90 minutes at Ashton Gate this Tuesday night.

RECOMMENDED BEST BET

The potential losses of both Frank Fielding and Nathan Baker are going to hit us hard in my opinion and if Man City name a stronger side than in the first leg as expected, I see a fast start by the away side as they look to put the tie to bed early. For those reasons, I am backing Man City to be ahead after 15 minutes with a best price of 29/10.

Follow Ross on Twitter at @RossCasey24

Ross Casey has six years’ worth of experience in the football betting industry where he worked his way up from a data management input role all the way to being the editor thanks to his betting knowledge and his editorial skills. 

Currently seeking new work after redundancy, we are happy to have the Bristol City fan who has supported the club from birth and had a season ticket for 15 years before moving to London, writing for us weekly. He now attends as many City games as possible and counts Tommy Doherty and Jon Stead among his City heroes.


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